Morogoro Smallholders Face the Cost of Uncertain Rainfall

Morogoro Smallholders Face the Cost of Uncertain Rainfall

 By Thadei Hafigwa 

SOME small-scale farmers from Mvomero and Morogoro districts have expressed concern over the impact of climate change challenges on their agricultural activities.

Ramadhan Divunyagale, a small-scale rice farmer in Mvomero District, concluded the 2025/2026 farming season with a harvest far below his expectations. He cultivated three acres of rain-fed rice, investing funds in land preparation and agrochemicals. According to his account, he harvested only four bags of rice, each weighing 100 kilograms.

Divunyagale reports spending approximately 1.1 million Shillings on production: 800,000 Shillings for land preparation and 300,000 Shillings for agrochemicals. His total harvest amounted to 400 kilograms of rice. These figures are based on his own account; consequently, further research into this challenge is required.

For a farmer who relies on rainfall rather than irrigation, a season like this can result in consequences far more severe than merely obtaining an unsatisfactory harvest. This situation could jeopardize household food security, income, the ability to repay debts, and the funds needed for the next planting season. The extent of the impact on Divunyagale has not yet been determined.

A similar situation was reported by Shamira Ally, a maize farmer from Kiroka in Morogoro District. She states that she spent 300,000 shillings to cultivate one acre but harvested only 20 kilograms of maize that season. She attributes these poor results to rainfall that fell short of expectations.

The stories of these two farmers raise a question that extends beyond the boundaries of their individual farms.When unpredictable weather destroys a smallholder farmer's investment, who bears the financial cost, and what protections are available?

Their experiences offer an opportunity to examine the challenges and risks facing rain-fed agriculture in the Morogoro region. Their accounts alone are insufficient to prove that climate change was the cause of these losses.

Weather data, field evidence, and independent expert assessments are required to distinguish between impacts caused by seasonal rainfall variations and those resulting from planting timing, crop management, soil conditions, pests, diseases, input quality, and other factors.

When harvests fail to cover investment costs. Preliminary figures indicate that both farmers are facing significant financial challenges.

Divunyagale reports production costs of 1.1 million shillings, while Ally reports costs of 300,000 shillings; thus, their combined reported costs total 1.4 million shillings. The farmers' net income cannot yet be calculated because the prices they received or could have received for their crops remain unknown. The reported crop yields might suggest that the farmers failed to recoup their production costs; however, this conclusion cannot be confirmed without accurate data on prices, sales records, household consumption statistics, and information regarding other farm income or aid received.

For Shamira, 20 kilograms of maize might meet household food needs only to a limited extent, depending on the size of his household and its consumption requirements. For Divunyagale, 400 kilograms of rice from three acres represents a yield of approximately 133 kilograms per acre. These figures are based on data provided by the farmers themselves, rather than yields measured by independent experts.

These losses also highlight the distinction between the direct impacts of a poor agricultural season and its broader economic consequences. A farmer may lose a significant portion of their investment, yet the repercussions can persist well beyond the harvest manifesting as food shortages, the need to borrow money, the sale of household assets, or an inability to purchase agricultural inputs for the next planting season. Further investigation is required to determine whether either of these two farmers experienced such consequences.

Research conducted by Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA) provides important contextual evidence for understanding the risks facing rain-fed rice farmers; however, it does not specifically substantiate the situation at the Divunyagale farm.

In a recent report published on April 10, 2026, SUA detailed research being conducted by the Tanzania Agricultural Research Institute (TARI) under the "Rice for Africa" ​​project, which focuses on climate-resilient and environmentally friendly rice farming. The initiative's core work involved approximately 258 farmers across eight villages.

According to SUA, rain-fed rice farmers reported that unpredictable rainfall including delayed starts to the rainy season and shorter seasons contributed to water shortages, the need for repeated planting, low yields, and increased production costs. These findings and experiences were reported by the project's participant group; they do not confirm that these same factors caused the losses reported by Divunyagale or Shamira.

The project, led by principal investigator Professor Suzana Nchimbi Msolla, is investigating drought-tolerant rice varieties suitable for local conditions, as well as climate-smart practices such as direct seeding and crop rotation. This study is significant because it documents concerns regarding rainfall uncertainty and explores potential solutions. However, it does not determine the prevalence of these issues across the Morogoro region, nor does it establish a causal link to climate change or ascertain whether the proposed strategies would have prevented the losses reported by the two farmers in question.

This presents an opportunity for the media to conduct investigative reporting on this challenge.