Morogoro Smallholders Face the Cost of
Uncertain Rainfall
By Thadei Hafigwa
SOME small-scale farmers from Mvomero and Morogoro districts have
expressed concern over the impact of climate change challenges on their
agricultural activities.
Ramadhan Divunyagale, a
small-scale rice farmer in Mvomero District, concluded the 2025/2026 farming
season with a harvest far below his expectations. He cultivated three acres of
rain-fed rice, investing funds in land preparation and agrochemicals. According
to his account, he harvested only four bags of rice, each weighing 100
kilograms.
Divunyagale reports spending
approximately 1.1 million Shillings on production: 800,000 Shillings for land
preparation and 300,000 Shillings for agrochemicals. His total harvest amounted
to 400 kilograms of rice. These figures are based on his own account; consequently,
further research into this challenge is required.
For a farmer who relies on
rainfall rather than irrigation, a season like this can result in consequences
far more severe than merely obtaining an unsatisfactory harvest. This situation
could jeopardize household food security, income, the ability to repay debts,
and the funds needed for the next planting season. The extent of the impact on
Divunyagale has not yet been determined.
A similar situation was reported
by Shamira Ally, a maize farmer from Kiroka in Morogoro District. She states
that she spent 300,000 shillings to cultivate one acre but harvested only 20
kilograms of maize that season. She attributes these poor results to rainfall
that fell short of expectations.
The stories of these two farmers
raise a question that extends beyond the boundaries of their individual farms.When unpredictable weather
destroys a smallholder farmer's investment, who bears the financial cost, and
what protections are available?
Their experiences offer an
opportunity to examine the challenges and risks facing rain-fed agriculture in
the Morogoro region. Their accounts alone are
insufficient to prove that climate change was the cause of these losses.
Weather data, field evidence, and
independent expert assessments are required to distinguish between impacts
caused by seasonal rainfall variations and those resulting from planting
timing, crop management, soil conditions, pests, diseases, input quality, and
other factors.
When harvests fail to cover
investment costs. Preliminary figures indicate that
both farmers are facing significant financial challenges.
Divunyagale reports production
costs of 1.1 million shillings, while Ally reports costs of 300,000 shillings;
thus, their combined reported costs total 1.4 million shillings. The farmers'
net income cannot yet be calculated because the prices they received or could
have received for their crops remain unknown. The reported crop yields might
suggest that the farmers failed to recoup their production costs; however, this
conclusion cannot be confirmed without accurate data on prices, sales records,
household consumption statistics, and information regarding other farm income
or aid received.
For Shamira, 20 kilograms of
maize might meet household food needs only to a limited extent, depending on
the size of his household and its consumption requirements. For Divunyagale,
400 kilograms of rice from three acres represents a yield of approximately 133
kilograms per acre. These figures are based on data provided by the farmers
themselves, rather than yields measured by independent experts.
These losses also highlight the
distinction between the direct impacts of a poor agricultural season and its
broader economic consequences. A farmer may lose a significant portion of their
investment, yet the repercussions can persist well beyond the harvest manifesting
as food shortages, the need to borrow money, the sale of household assets, or
an inability to purchase agricultural inputs for the next planting season.
Further investigation is required to determine whether either of these two
farmers experienced such consequences.
Research conducted by Sokoine
University of Agriculture (SUA) provides important contextual evidence for
understanding the risks facing rain-fed rice farmers; however, it does not
specifically substantiate the situation at the Divunyagale farm.
In a recent report published on
April 10, 2026, SUA detailed research being conducted by the Tanzania
Agricultural Research Institute (TARI) under the "Rice for Africa" project, which focuses on
climate-resilient and environmentally friendly rice farming. The initiative's
core work involved approximately 258 farmers across eight villages.
According to SUA, rain-fed rice
farmers reported that unpredictable rainfall including delayed starts to the
rainy season and shorter seasons contributed to water shortages, the need for
repeated planting, low yields, and increased production costs. These findings
and experiences were reported by the project's participant group; they do not
confirm that these same factors caused the losses reported by Divunyagale or Shamira.
The project, led by principal
investigator Professor Suzana Nchimbi Msolla, is investigating drought-tolerant
rice varieties suitable for local conditions, as well as climate-smart
practices such as direct seeding and crop rotation. This study is significant
because it documents concerns regarding rainfall uncertainty and explores
potential solutions. However, it does not determine the prevalence of these
issues across the Morogoro region, nor does it establish a causal link to
climate change or ascertain whether the proposed strategies would have
prevented the losses reported by the two farmers in question.
This presents an opportunity for
the media to conduct investigative reporting on this challenge.